The operating environment across the livestock supply chain remains volatile. Weather conditions and ongoing geopolitical pressures continue to influence producer decision-making and shape market trends.
Large cattle yardings are still being seen across Queensland and New South Wales as dry conditions persist in many regions. Bindaree’s cattle buyers have reported a noticeable shift in supply, with a higher proportion of secondary cows compared to lead cows. Recent rainfall in parts of the eastern states, along with further rain forecast this month, has helped to restore producer confidence.
The light feeder market has been volatile in recent weeks, as restockers and feedlotters compete for cattle. Higher prices have been reported at saleyards such as Gunnedah, where there has been substantial feeder numbers and buyer interest. Cow prices have also risen in the last week due to tightened supply.
Despite a recent softening in feeder steer prices, feedlot margins remain under pressure due to the higher cost of wheat and barley. Ration prices are now exceeding $500mt.
Northern Australia has experienced consecutive strong wet seasons, and we expect to see large volumes of cattle move south as stations complete first-round mustering. Australian slaughter numbers and beef production are forecast to peak this year and into early next year before steadily declining. A broader herd rebuild is anticipated from 2028.
Export Markets
United Kingdom
Unfortunately, there have been no material developments regarding the potential for the United Kingdom to import Australian beef outside of EUCAS regulations.
China
In the short-term, Bindaree is focused on optimising cow throughput at Inverell and HGP-free grainfed ahead of Australia reaching its China quota. At this stage, the last shipment date is the 29th of May. Bindaree will continue to support several key customers in order to maintain relationships. Full China production is expected to resume at Bindaree in November, with product arriving from the 1st of January. This leaves Australian exporters needing to divert product into alternative markets for five months, while China remains effectively closed.
USA
The United States will be our largest export market this year, however, there is ongoing concern around the competitive position Brazil may hold. Brazil is nearing its China quota and has begun diverting volume into the US. Brazil’s 90CL trim is currently priced $1.20-$1.50 below Australian 90CL. Significant penetration by Brazil into the US market is starting to place downward pressure on the supply chain.
South Korea
Australia is expected to reach its South Korean safeguard by the end of July – the earliest on record. This is driven by reduced US supply and lower domestic production. While the 24% tariff is a significant cost to absorb, the market remains a potential outlet for displaced China product.
Japan
Japan is a consistent and important market for Australian beef; however, long-term economic challenges continue to limit pricing relative to other export markets.
Bindaree Bookings
Inverell and Monbeef are now taking bookings for the first week of June. Feedlot placements are running 3-5 weeks ahead, depending on cattle type. Please touch base with a member of the Bindaree buying team.
