China
The Chinese tariff is still on track to come into effect in May (end-of-April shipments). Australia reached 50% of its quota in mid-March and is currently filling around 1% per day. Like most processors, Bindaree is aiming to maximise throughput in April as the window of opportunity into China starts to narrow. This will enable us to deliver as much beef as possible to our customers before the expected closure.
Brazil is also expected to fill its China quota by July.
USA
The USA market is the global “benchmark”. At present, lean (90cl) meat is in high demand in the United States, and they will continue to be an integral market this year. Australian and New Zealand trim meat is preferred due to its consistency, which blends well with fattier (50cl) US grainfed trims. Together, these produce the ideal 78cl hamburger patty.
Once China access closes due to tariffs, Bindaree expects to divert additional volumes of beef to the USA from 1st May. The one concern we have is Brazil. Where will they direct product once they fill China? We expect Brazil will turn their attention to the USA as well, and if this occurs, price premiums in this market may dissipate.
South Korea
When it rains, it pours.
The South Korean quota is also expected to be filled in July, which will see a 24% tariff applied to beef imports from Australia. Korean importers are currently stockpiling blade, chuck roll and brisket from Australia.
Japan
With food deflation continuing in Japan, prices remain stuck at levels significantly below those in Korea, USA and China. They take good volumes, but we can no longer rely on them to lead on price.
United Kingdom
The United Kingdom has indicated that they may accept beef outside of standard EUCAS regulations. This would be a positive development for Australian exporters and would help absorb displaced product resulting from the China tariff. We are hoping this will enable us to send more beef to the UK from May onwards (without EUCAS requirements).
Australia has a 60,000mt quota allocation, which could make the UK a valuable market if beef from both heifers and steers is accepted. There has been feedback however, that heifer and cow beef may be excluded in 2026 due to estradiol testing.
EU Trade Agreement
Consistent with wider industry sentiment, the EU Free Trade Agreement announced in March has not improved commercial outcomes for Bindaree. Going forward, Bindaree will continue to supply our Swiss customers, however we expect to significantly reduce our EU volumes.
Grassfed vs Grainfed
Bindaree Inverell is currently processing 70% grainfed vs 30% grassfed. We are conscious that April to June traditionally sees an annual spike in cow turnoff across the region as we head into winter. With increased volumes, Bindaree plans to add additional shifts during April and May to accommodate grassfed cattle.
Summary
Seasonal uncertainty and the impacts of the US-Iran war have created caution among producers and customers. This is evident through large yardings of cattle, transport cost concerns and a $70/mt jump in grain offerings. Add to this market uncertainty around China and Korean tariffs, expected Argentinian access into Japan, and increased Brazilian volumes into the USA. We are entering a volatile period, and while the market appears active, it presents a range of operational and commercial challenges.
Think about next month, not tomorrow. With the exception of northern New South Wales, most regions are experiencing strong seasonal conditions following widespread rainfall. Elevated cattle supply has changed dynamics and Inverell and Cooma are booking consigned cattle four weeks in advance rather than one. When looking to sell cattle, please take this into consideration.
